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Republicans Move Closer to Losing House: 15 Races Shift Toward Democrats
Republicans face tougher odds to keep the House as 15 races shift toward Democrats, according to Cook Political Report.
By  Ernesto Iván Vargas Martínez
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Republicanos pierden terreno en elecciones por la Cámara Baja
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Posted on 09/26/26 at 12:24

The Cook Political Report changed its assessment of 15 elections in favor of the Democrats. The GOP still has a path to maintain control on November 3.

Republicans face a more difficult path to retaining the House of Representatives: 15 races shifted toward Democrats this Friday, according to the Cook Political Report.

Why it matters: The Republican majority is narrow, and Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to regain control of the House.

Republicans Lose Ground in House Elections

Cook, a non-partisan and independent publication specializing in elections, now considers the Democrats favored in 208 races, compared to 205 for the Republicans.

This does not mean that 208 seats are assured. Cook’s ratings measure competitiveness by considering factors such as candidates, the political composition of districts, and the national environment.

The fact: Cook estimates the most likely scenario as a Democratic gain of between 5 and 15 seats, resulting in between 220 and 230 representatives.

The House has 435 seats, and all will be at stake on November 3. Reaching 218 seats allows for a majority when all 435 positions are occupied.

The change compared to previous weeks is also visible: on September 11, Cook classified nine districts as «Lean Democrat»; now there are 11.

Republicans Need to Win Disputed Districts

The main problem for the GOP is in the closest races. Cook currently classifies 22 races as «Toss Up,» meaning there is no clear favorite.

Additionally, 17 of those districts are currently represented by Republicans, compared to five occupied by Democrats, according to the count published by Axios based on the new ratings.

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The key: Republicans would need to win the majority of those disputed races to retain control of the House, according to Cook.

The landscape also shows a particularity: many of the most competitive races are in districts that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election.

Cook attributes part of the Republican deterioration to discontent with the president’s handling of the economy, although each district election has its own dynamics.

Democrats and Republicans React to New Scenario

Democrats interpreted the changes as a favorable sign. Courtney Rice, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, stated that House Republicans are «losing ground.»

Republicans questioned that reading. Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, highlighted his party’s territorial organization, advertising, and financial resources.

The Republican advantage: The NRCC entered the final stretch with $13 million more in available cash than its Democratic counterpart, according to Axios.

For now, the ratings describe the state of the races, not definitive results. A recent Cook poll in 37 competitive districts showed 49% for Democrats and 47% for Republicans in generic congressional preference.

Congressional Control to be Decided on November 3

The midterm elections will renew all 435 seats in the House and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate.

What’s next: There are more than five weeks of campaigning left, and Cook warns that its range of possible outcomes may change as the races evolve.

Control of the House will determine which party leads its committees and sets its legislative agenda during the last two years of the current presidential term.

Sources: Efe/ El Universal

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