Texas Poll Shows Dead Heat Between Paxton and Talarico in Senate Race

A new survey has the candidates for the Texas Senate seat, Ken Paxton and James Talarico, in a dead heat. At the same time, Republican Greg Abbott maintains a narrow lead in the gubernatorial contest.

A poll by UMass Lowell and YouGov, released on October 8, shows a tie between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. The Texas Senate race remains competitive just days before early voting begins, despite recent advantages for Democrats.

Texas Senate Poll 2026: Paxton Tied

🚨BREAKING:

“Poll conducted pre-funding surge and pre-Labor Day — Texas is a RED STATE and hopefully more than enough voters come home for Republicans over the next 7 weeks!”

NEW AARP POLL SHOWS TIGHT RACES FOR TEXAS SENATE AND GOVERNOR AS ELECTION DAY APPROACHES! https://t.co/m4Vv7xTPPf

— Wake Up Patriot 🇺🇸 (@WakeUpPatriott) October 8, 2026

The poll puts both candidates at 45% of voting intention, while 7% of participants have not yet decided who to support.

The research consulted 850 likely voters between September 18 and 28, with an adjusted margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

ATTENTION: Early voting will begin on October 19, just 11 days after the poll was released.

The tie contrasts with other recent polls that placed Talarico ahead of Paxton, some with differences above the margin of error.

However, a single poll does not demonstrate a sustained change in electoral preferences nor allow anticipation of who will win in November.

Hispanic and Young Voters Show Differences

The poll identifies significant contrasts between voter groups, especially by age and ethnic origin.

Among those 65 and older, Paxton reaches 58% support, compared to Talarico’s 38%.

Among young people aged 18 to 29, Talarico obtains 49%, while Paxton gathers 37%.

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– Hispanic vote: Talarico registers 48% compared to Paxton’s 42%. Among African Americans, the difference is 67% against 17%.

These figures describe the preferences of the participants in each group, but do not imply that all members of that group will vote the same way.

The poll also measured Talarico’s image: 42% expressed a favorable opinion and 41% an unfavorable one. It did not present an equivalent measurement for Paxton.

Abbott Maintains Four-Point Lead Over Hinojosa

Similar polls show Republican Governor Greg Abbott with 48% support, compared to Democrat Gina Hinojosa’s 44%.

The four-point difference is within the margin of error, so there is no statistically conclusive advantage.

– The difference: In the gubernatorial race, 6% remain undecided and 1% claim they will not vote.

Abbott is seeking to retain the office he has held since 2015, while Hinojosa is trying to expand Democratic support in a historically Republican state.

Other Polls Keep the Battle for the Senate Open

The UMass Lowell tie contrasts with YouGov’s October 6 poll, which placed Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 44%.

The New York Times also recorded a Democratic lead of 51% against 45% on October 3, according to the collected data.

Differences between the polls may be due to different methodologies, survey dates, and samples. They do not prove a change in trend on their own.

Texas will hold early voting from October 19 to 30. The general election will be on November 3. Further, registered voters can check their voting centers and verify their information on VoteTexas.gov.

The outcome will determine whether Republicans retain the seat currently held by John Cornyn or if Democrats manage to recover it.

Source: USA Today.