Latino Vote Pressures Republican Majority: 12 Districts Could Tip the House

Twelve of the 37 most competitive congressional districts have Hispanic populations of at least 20%.

Trump’s declining support among Latinos adds uncertainty to several closely contested races.

Twelve competitive House districts have Hispanic populations of at least 20%, according to an analysis published by The Cook Political Report on September 3.

• Why it matters: Republicans are defending a narrow majority, and relatively small shifts in Latino voter turnout or preferences could prove significant in several contested districts.

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Three Republicans Face Races in Districts With Large Latino Populations

The Cook Political Report classifies 37 districts as Toss Up, Lean Republican, or Lean Democrat, categories indicating different levels of competitiveness.

Twelve have Hispanic populations of at least 20%, and six have Hispanic majorities.

Republicans David Valadao, Gabe Evans, and Juan Ciscomani are among the candidates competing in Toss Up races.

• Where to watch: Cook specifically highlighted the AZ-06, CA-22, and CO-08 races as contests where it is monitoring Hispanic voter behavior.
• The shift: California’s 22nd District, represented by Valadao, shifted nearly 20 percentage points toward Republicans between 2020 and 2024, according to Cook.

That shift occurred as Trump improved his performance among Hispanic voters in 2024. However, Cook notes that his approval rating among this electorate has since declined.

A national Equis Research survey cited by Cook placed Trump’s approval rating among Latinos at 31% in July.

Colorado Illustrates the Risk for Republicans

Colorado’s 8th District provides a local example. Latinos account for nearly 40% of its population, and Republican Gabe Evans is seeking reelection against Democrat Manny Rutinel.

A Colorado Latino Policy Agenda survey found that 61% of Latino voters questioned in the district disapprove of Trump, while 37% approve of him.

• The trend: Trump’s disapproval rating increased by 13 percentage points from 2025. Evans has a 34% approval rating and a 42% disapproval rating among these voters.
• The concern: The economy was the top concern among the Latinos surveyed, including low wages and the high cost of living.

Rejection of Trump Does Not Guarantee Democratic Votes in the 2026 Elections

Nationally, the Pew Research Center finds that Democrats lead among registered Hispanic voters, although a considerable share remains unaligned with either major party’s candidate.

If the elections were held today, 49% would support the Democratic House candidate and 26% the Republican candidate. Another 18% are unsure whom they would support, while 6% would choose another option.

• The limit: These figures do not mean that declining approval of Trump automatically translates into votes for Democrats.
• Another unknown: Pew warns that voter turnout in midterm elections is typically considerably lower than in presidential elections.

With competitive races in states including California, Arizona, and Colorado, Latino voter mobilization and final preferences will be important factors in determining which party controls the House after the 2026 elections.

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SOURCE: The Cook Political report / Axios / Pew Research center