US Midterm Election Polls: Democrats Lead

• Democrats lead in voting intention, according to RealClearPolitics
• House of Representatives is a highly contested race, cookpolitical.com reports
• Seven Senate contests remain open

Election polls. In a month, on November 3, Americans will go to the polls in midterm elections that are seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump‘s management and will determine whether Republicans maintain their current majority in Congress.

Trump is trying to mobilize his base by asking them to vote as if he were on the ballot, with the aspiration of repeating his 2024 victory, but his popularity is at an all-time low, weighed down by the unpopular war in Iran and the high cost of living.

According to the poll aggregator RealClearPolitics, Democrats clearly lead the voting intention for Congress, with 50.6%, 8.3 points above Republicans, who obtain 42.3%.

Election Polls: Democrats Favorite to Win the House

In this context, the Democratic opposition is favored to regain control of the House of Representatives, which renews all 435 seats for a two-year term.

Republicans currently hold a narrow majority of 219 seats, compared to the 214 held by Democrats, which has allowed them to approve initiatives such as the tax exemption package and health program cuts promoted by Trump by a minimal margin.

According to RealClearPolitics, there are 40 competitive districts, and if Democrats win nearly half, they would secure a majority in the House.

According to another analysis by Cook Political Report, if current trends continue, Democrats could gain around 15 additional seats and reach a majority close to 230.

History also favors Democrats: recent presidents have lost control of the House of Representatives in midterm elections due to the wear and tear of governing, including Trump himself in the 2018 elections.

Democratic control of the House would also allow for impeachment proceedings against Trump or members of his cabinet, as already happened during his first term.

Election Polls: The Senate, a More Contested Race

On November 3, 35 of the 100 Senate seats will also be renewed, where Republicans have a majority of 53 senators, compared to the 47 Democrats.

Senators serve six-year terms and have powers such as confirming Supreme Court judges and presidential cabinet members.

According to Cook Political Report, the battle for the Upper House is concentrated in seven states with tight races: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas.

Democrats face a more difficult path, as they would need to take at least four currently Republican seats to gain control of the Senate.

Alarm Bells Ringing for Republicans?

However, alarm bells have gone off within the Republican Party, where some contests that seemed resolved at the beginning of the year have now narrowed.

The clearest example is Texas, where Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton, a close ally of Trump, by 2.6 points.

This has led the president himself to become fully involved in the campaign and held a rally at a Texas factory last Thursday in an attempt to mobilize his electorate.

Democrats also face the challenge of retaining states they already control, such as Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed, a representative of the progressive wing close to Senator Bernie Sanders and New York City Mayor, Zohran Mamdani, narrowly leads Republican Mike Rogers.