Redesign of Electoral Maps in the US Only Gives Republicans Three Safe Seats

• Only three of the targeted districts are rated safely Republican.
• Five congressional races remain without a clear favorite.
• Both parties are spending millions of dollars on election advertising.

US redistricting in 2026 has yielded only three safely Republican seats among the 15 congressional districts redrawn at the party's initiative ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. The Republican-led changes were intended to help preserve the party's narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

The controversial practice of redrawing electoral boundaries to favor a political party, known as gerrymandering, took place outside the usual redistricting cycle, with the next scheduled review following the 2030 census. The unusual push came amid pressure from US President Donald Trump to maintain Republican control of the House.

However, Trump's declining popularity, the high cost of living, and the economic effects of the war in Iran, particularly rising gasoline and diesel prices, have complicated Republicans' efforts to retain their congressional majority as polls show Democrats holding an advantage.

US Redistricting 2026: Only Three Republican Seats Rated Safe

According to an NPR analysis based on ratings from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, only three of the 15 congressional districts redrawn to benefit Republicans are considered safely Republican. Those districts are located in the Republican-leaning states of Louisiana, Tennessee, and Texas.

The forecasts classify two additional districts in Texas and Florida as "Likely Republican," while another district in Alabama is rated "Lean Republican."

Five other congressional races in North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Texas remain toss-ups, with neither party holding a clear advantage. Meanwhile, Florida's 25th Congressional District and Texas's 34th Congressional District are considered potential Democratic gains.

The Cook Political Report also rates two additional districts in Texas and Ohio as "Likely Democratic."

2026 Midterm Elections: Millions Spent on Political Advertising

The November 3 midterm elections will determine all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, with control of Congress shaping the future of Trump's political agenda during the remainder of his term. According to advertising tracker AdImpact, the 2026 elections are already the most expensive midterms on record in terms of political advertising aired and reserved.

Both Democrats and Republicans have invested millions of dollars in advertising campaigns targeting voters across the 15 redrawn congressional districts.

According to AdImpact figures, advertising spending in the five toss-up districts ranges from $17 million to $43 million.

Florida's 25th Congressional District has attracted the highest advertising spending among the 15 races, with $23.1 million in Democratic advertising compared with $24.2 million in Republican spending. The district is currently rated as leaning toward Democrats.