Texas Governor Polls Show Tight Abbott-Hinojosa Race Ahead of Election

Recent Texas governor polls show closer races than expected for Republicans just weeks ahead of the November 3, 2026, election. The polls do not agree with each other: some give an edge to Governor Greg Abbott, while others favor his Democratic rival, Gina Hinojosa. Among Latino voters, concerns about the cost of living weigh heavily.

• According to a Siena/ReconMR poll of likely voters, published on October 13, 2026, Abbott leads 48% to 47%, while James Talarico (D) leads Ken Paxton (R) 48% to 44% in the Senate race.
• Other recent polls show mixed results in the governor’s race: Fox News favors Abbott, while YouGov and The New York Times/Siena favor Hinojosa.
• Among working-class Latinos, the cost of living is the main concern, according to UnidosUS.

Why it matters: Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. A close race could change where campaign money is spent and which voters are mobilized, and Latino voters are a key group in that contest.

Texas Governor Polls Show a Statistical Tie

In the Siena/ReconMR poll, Abbott has 48% and Hinojosa 47%. In September, the same poll gave Hinojosa 49% against Abbott’s 45%. Abbott’s approval rating is 48% positive and 51% negative. In the Senate race, Talarico has 48% and Paxton 44%; in September, they were at 49% and 43%, respectively. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats have 47% and Republicans 46%.

The regional map shows a divided electorate. Abbott leads by 25 points in rural Texas. Hinojosa leads 75% to 22% in Austin, 52% to 44% in Houston, and 53% to 42% in San Antonio and the southern part of the state. In Dallas-Fort Worth, they are tied at 48%. Among independents, Hinojosa leads 57% to 34%.

Fifty-six percent of respondents say ICE’s tactics «have gone too far,» and 54% oppose the way ICE arrests people, compared with 42% who support it. Pollster Hendren, from ReconMR, summarized: «In an unusual situation for the three-term governor, Abbott enters the final weeks of the campaign in the tightest of battles with Hinojosa.»

Other Texas Governor Polls Tell a Different Story

According to the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, a YouGov poll conducted from September 28 to October 5 gave Hinojosa 48% and Abbott 47%. Another poll by The New York Times/Siena, conducted from September 21 to 30, gave Hinojosa a 49% to 46% lead. In contrast, a Fox News poll conducted from September 24 to 28 placed Abbott at 52% and Hinojosa at 47%.

According to The Center Square, on October 12, RealClearPolitics rated the governor’s race a «toss-up» for the first time in Abbott’s political career. The same outlet noted that the Polymarket prediction market still gave Abbott an 80% chance of winning.

Fort Bend and South Texas Under the Spotlight

A poll of the 2026 race by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Center in Fort Bend County gives Hinojosa 53% and Abbott 42%. Fort Bend is the most diverse county in Texas, with a population of one million: 29% white, 25% Latino, 22% Asian, and 20% Black. Talarico leads Paxton by 18 points there. In 2022, Abbott lost Fort Bend by 5 points to Beto O’Rourke, although he won statewide 55% to 44%.

In South Texas, a Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision poll in districts 15, 28, and 34 found that 59.5% would vote for a Democrat for Congress, while 64% disapprove of the president’s performance. The main concern is the economy (29.8%), followed by opposition to Trump’s policies (23.3%). This is notable because two years ago, Hispanic voters along the border made a historic shift toward Republicans.

The Economy Weighs on Latino Voters

The UnidosUS and BSP Research poll, published on October 6, 2026, surveyed 2,700 working-class Latinos across the country, with expanded samples in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas. Among the results:

• 68% say they are working more than ever but falling behind.
• 40% are worse off than a year ago.
• 83% rank the cost of living among their top three concerns.
• Only 12% live comfortably; 61% barely cover expenses or struggle financially.

Janet Murguía, president of UnidosUS, said: «They are eating less to save money, skipping doctor’s visits, or not filling prescriptions for medications they need.»

What’s Next in the Texas 2026 Election

A poll is a snapshot of the moment, not a forecast. With margins of error of around 3 to 4 points, the governor’s race is a statistical tie. Polls can also miss the final result: in 2024, Colin Allred won Fort Bend by 8 points, but Ted Cruz won statewide re-election despite polls showing a tie.

• Early voting in Texas runs from October 19 to 30, 2026. Check dates and locations at votetexas.gov.
• Election Day is November 3, 2026.
• To vote in person, bring a photo ID.

Sources: Siena Research Institute/ReconMR; Texas Politics Project (UT Austin); The Center Square; UnidosUS; VoteTexas.gov. Data consulted on October 13, 2026.