Latino Voters: Congressional Races That Could Decide Control 24 Days From Election

Latino voters could decide who controls Congress after the November 3 election, and polls show many are moving away from Republicans who won them over in 2024. With 24 days to go before voting, the map of competitive races has expanded, especially in states and districts with large Hispanic populations.

• Democrats lead 59% to 35% among Latino voters in preference for control of Congress, according to an NBC News and Telemundo poll conducted from September 21 to 28.
• Inside Elections now rates 13 Senate and 73 House races as competitive, according to Roll Call.
• Democrats need to net three seats to control the House.

Why it matters: the party that controls Congress decides which laws are voted on regarding immigration, taxes, healthcare, and cost of living. In many tight districts, the Latino vote is the margin of victory.

What the polls say

President Donald Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters is 27%, according to the NBC News and Telemundo poll. 78% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, and 63% say their family’s income is falling behind prices. Two years ago, Latinos gave Trump a 4-point edge on the economy; today they give Democrats a 21-point edge.

Pollsters also warn that the Democratic Party’s image has not improved and that Republicans retain more Latino support than in any NBC poll before 2024. «What we can say with these numbers is that 2024 was the exception,» said Republican pollster Micah Roberts.

The debate within the Republican Party

In an opinion column published on October 10 in the Washington Examiner, a conservative author warns that Republicans «took the Hispanic vote for granted» and that, without Trump on the ballot, they will lose the House and Senate if they don’t go after it district by district. He cites a March poll in which 8 out of 10 Hispanic voters in Texas feel that politicians take them for granted.

Republican Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar, from Miami, said in a campaign video that Latinos who voted for Trump feel «betrayed,» according to the Christian Science Monitor. Republican strategist Mike Madrid describes it as a move away from both parties: «It’s not left or right.»

Where the key races are

House of Representatives. Of the 73 competitive seats, Republicans are defending 43 and Democrats 30, according to Inside Elections. According to Equis Research, cited by The New Republic, Latinos make up more than 10% of eligible voters in 20 competitive districts and more than 20% in a dozen of them. Some examples:

• Texas and Florida: Republicans redrew districts with Latino majorities that seemed safe with the 2024 results and are now in dispute, according to NBC News. Analysts calculate that the new maps in eight states would give them only 2 to 5 seats, while Democrats could gain up to 6 through redistricting in California and Utah, according to the Washington Examiner.
• Pennsylvania, 7th district (includes Allentown, a city with a Latino majority): a September Franklin & Marshall poll gave Democrat Bob Brooks a 5-point lead over Republican Ryan Mackenzie.

Senate. Democrats need to net four seats. At the start of the cycle, there were only five competitive races; now Republicans are also defending seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas, according to Inside Elections. Minnesota is the only Democratic seat that was added to the list.

What’s next

Trump’s approval rating is at 37% according to Nate Silver’s average, down from 52% in January 2025, according to Roll Call. Early voting has already begun in several states.

What you can do

• Confirm that you are registered and where you need to vote at vote.gov, available in Spanish.
• Check the early voting and mail-in voting dates for your state on your Secretary of State’s website.
• If you are asked for identification, check in advance what documents your state accepts.

Sources: NBC News; Roll Call; Christian Science Monitor; Washington Examiner, opinion; Washington Examiner; The New Republic; Vote.gov. Data consulted on October 10, 2026.