Latino Vote in Colorado Shifts Away from Trump: Could It Change Control of Congress?
Posted on 09/03/26 at 14:00
- Latino vote shifts away from Trump
- Democrats reach 51% support
- 15% of voters remain undecided
The Latino vote in Colorado could become one of the biggest obstacles for Republicans in a congressional district that will be decisive in the battle for control of the House of Representatives.
A new BSP Research poll shows a significant decline in President Donald Trump’s approval rating among registered Hispanic voters in the competitive 8th Congressional District.
Currently, only 29% approve of Trump’s job performance, while 70% disapprove, compared with 42% approval and 54% disapproval among this electorate in 2025.
“When we see numbers change by more than ten points in a year, that’s quite significant statistically,” Gabriel Sánchez, a pollster at BSP Research, explained during the presentation of the results.
Why the Latino Vote Could Decide Colorado’s 8th District
The 8th District covers suburbs north of Denver and part of rural Weld County and has the largest Hispanic population of any congressional district in Colorado.
About 40% of its residents are Hispanic, while Latinos account for approximately 28.5% of registered voters, or about 131,460 people, according to UnidosUS.
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Their influence becomes even more significant when considering the 2024 results: Trump won the district by only 1.8 percentage points, a narrow margin in a highly competitive area.
The House race was even closer: Republican Gabe Evans defeated Democrat Yadira Caraveo by 2,449 votes, equivalent to just 0.7 percentage points.
Democrats Take the Lead, but 15% Remain Undecided
The poll offers another warning sign for Republicans: 51% of the Latinos surveyed say they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate, while 29% would support the Republican.
However, disapproval of Trump does not mean that all these voters have decided to support Democrats, an important distinction when interpreting the results.
Fifteen percent of the Latino electorate in the 8th District remains undecided, a substantial proportion compared with the margin of just 0.7 percentage points that determined the winner of the seat in the 2024 election.
This means both parties still have an opportunity to compete for thousands of voters who could ultimately decide a race with national consequences for control of the House of Representatives.
Economic Concerns Shape Latino Opinion Before November
The political shift coincides with a particularly pressing concern for families: 44% of Latinos in the district say their financial situation has worsened over the past year.
Additionally, 69% believe the United States is heading in the wrong direction, while the cost of living, inflation, wages, and affordable housing rank among their main concerns.
For Republicans, the challenge will be to regain some of the Latino voters Trump attracted in 2024; for Democrats, it will be to turn the dissatisfaction reflected in the poll into voter turnout in November.
According to EFE, SWI, and Yahoo, the poll surveyed 1,606 registered Latino voters in Colorado between July 1 and August 11 and included an oversample of 288 voters from the 8th District, with a margin of error of 5.8 percentage points.