Skip to main content

Press "Enter" to search or "ESC" to close.

Hispanic Vote Shifts Again, Democratic Lead Widens as Texas and Florida Draw Attention
Democrats lead Republicans 64% to 29% among likely Hispanic voters on the congressional ballot, a 35-point margin.
By  Kristel Escobar
Share on FacebookShare on InstagramShare on TwitterShare on TikTokShare on YouTubeShare on WhatsApp
voto, latino, texas, florida, elecciones, trump, Hispanic Vote 2026: Democratic Lead Widens as Texas and Florida Draw Attention
FOTO: Referencial recreada con IA

Posted on09/24/26 at 15:17

A Times/Siena poll shows a wide Democratic lead among likely Hispanic voters, but it remains unclear how those national preferences will translate into individual districts in November.

Democrats lead Republicans 64% to 29% among likely Hispanic voters on the congressional ballot, according to Times/Siena data cited by EFE.

  • Why it matters: The change comes after Republican gains among Hispanic voters in 2024 and could be relevant in Texas and Florida districts with large Hispanic populations.

Hispanic Vote Shows Wider Democratic Margin in 2026 Than in 2024

The contrast with 2024 is significant: before that presidential election, Times/Siena recorded only a seven-point lead for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump among Hispanic voters.

Now, the poll conducted from September 8 to 13 also places Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic voters at 26%, according to EFE.

  • The fact: The national poll measures congressional voting preferences. It does not establish that immigration is the sole cause of the shift.

In Texas, a separate UnidosUS poll found that 54% of Latino voters surveyed across five competitive districts planned to support the Democratic candidate, compared with 27% for the Republican.

That study also found that the cost of living and inflation ranked among voters’ leading concerns, alongside other issues including immigration policy.

Texas Bet on Retaining Republican Gains Among Latino Voters

The situation is especially relevant because Republicans redrew Texas congressional districts after their gains among Hispanic voters.

Several districts incorporated large Latino electorates as the new boundaries were drawn to create more favorable conditions for Republican candidates.

  • The paradox: Districts drawn with expectations that Republicans could retain part of their 2024 gains among Latino voters now face polling showing weaker GOP support within that electorate.

The 28th District illustrates that uncertainty: it remains a heavily Hispanic district, and Trump carried its redrawn boundaries by roughly ten points in 2024.

However, the district estimates cited by The New York Times are not individual polls conducted in those districts and should not be treated as forecasts of the November results.

Florida Focuses on María Elvira Salazar

In Florida, the analysis cited by EFE estimates a possible 21-point Democratic advantage in the 27th District, represented by Republican María Elvira Salazar.

The Miami-Dade district has a significant Cuban American population, and Trump carried the district by about 15 points in the 2024 presidential election.

  • The warning: Salazar recently told Trump that some Hispanics who helped return him to the White House in 2024 now feel «betrayed» by his immigration enforcement policies.

The figures do not allow the change to be attributed automatically to immigration policy. The economy, housing, healthcare, and the cost of living also remain important concerns among Hispanic voters.

Hispanic Vote Will Be Closely Watched in November 2026

Texas offers other signs of competition: Democrats have targeted several congressional districts with large Hispanic electorates.

But Latino voting behavior is not uniform. The 2024 results included voters who supported Trump for president while backing Democratic candidates in other races on the same ballot.

  • What’s next: On November 3, voters will elect the entire House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the Senate.

The polls show a substantial change from 2024, but they do not establish how Hispanic voters will ultimately cast their ballots or how strongly national trends will appear in individual districts.

You May Be Interested: Michigan Senate Race 2026: Harris Campaigns With El-Sayed Against Mike Rogers

SOURCE: EFE / Texas Tribune