Cold Weather Delayed? November Points to More Heat, But Doesn’t Rule Out Snow in the U.S.

• November is expected to bring elevated temperatures.
• El Niño is influencing this winter.
• A warm month doesn't rule out snow.

Persistent cold weather may be slow to set in across large areas of the United States. The November 2026 forecast favors above-average temperatures, especially in the north.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center maintains this trend in its October 31 update, while acknowledging uncertainty about potential atmospheric changes.

Although the current forecast averages the upcoming month, it doesn't mean that every day will be warm or that temperature drops will disappear.

Therefore, frost or snow can occur within a warmer-than-usual November: the monthly average doesn't tell the whole story.

Where Higher Temperatures Are Expected in November

Warm signals covers the northern part of the country and both coasts. The update also expands its coverage to areas in the southeast.

The northwest interior, the northern Great Plains, and the Great Lakes are among the regions highlighted by the forecast.

Areas with "equal probability" don't have a dominant trend between temperatures above, near, or below average. They also don't have guaranteed normal conditions.

To find out when a cold front will arrive in a city, it's necessary to consult the local forecast: the monthly map doesn't offer that precision.

How El Niño Influences the US Winter

When will winter weather arrive? November forecast has unusual answer https://t.co/kUngnOT3j6 via @@YahooNews

— julie pedley (@pedleyjulie) November 7, 2026

NOAA identifies El Niño as the primary climate factor in these forecasts, which is associated with warming in the tropical Pacific and changes in atmospheric circulation.

The phenomenon can modify storm routes and favor milder winter conditions in parts of the northern United States.

The outlook for November, December, and January also favors above-average temperatures in much of the north and west.

However, El Niño doesn't determine every weather episode. Other patterns can introduce cold periods, even if the seasonal trend favors warmth.

Rain and Snow Could Complicate Thanksgiving

The monthly update favors above-average precipitation in much of the south and the east coast, especially in the southeast.

In contrast, it contemplates drier conditions in areas of the northern mountainous west, the northern plains, and the Great Lakes.

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AccuWeather also anticipates possible mountain snowstorms in the west and rain towards Thanksgiving week.

These projections can still change. They don't allow fixing routes, accumulations, or impacts by city, and a warm month doesn't eliminate the risk of flooding.

When the Cold Will Arrive and How to Prepare for Travel

There is no single date for the arrival of cold weather in the United States: conditions depend on the region, altitude, and each weather system.

It also can't be confirmed that November will end as one of the warmest on record. That classification requires observations of the entire month.

Those traveling for Thanksgiving should update the forecast as their departure approaches, especially if they will be crossing mountainous areas.

Checking the National Weather Service alerts will help identify specific hazards, such as snow, heavy rain, or flooding, during the trip.

SOURCE: USATODAY