2028 Democratic Presidential Polls Show Newsom Leading Harris in California as AOC Shows Strength

California Governor Gavin Newsom is drawing more enthusiasm than Kamala Harris among California Democrats, while national and New Hampshire polls show a 2028 Democratic field with several potential contenders.

Gavin Newsom is ahead of Kamala Harris among California Democrats, although overall enthusiasm for presidential candidacies from both has declined since March.

• Why it matters: The Democratic field for 2028 remains unsettled, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is registering competitive support in some early polls.

Newsom Draws More Enthusiasm Than Harris Among California Democrats

A POLITICO/UC Berkeley Citrin Center poll found that enthusiasm among registered California voters for a Newsom candidacy dropped from 48% to 37%.

For Harris, the decline was greater: she fell from 41% in March to 28% in September, according to the poll conducted between September 8 and 14.

• The contrast: Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, 61% said they were enthusiastic about a Newsom candidacy, while 55% said they were not enthusiastic about Harris running.

The poll surveyed 2,418 registered voters and reported a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points for that group.

The results primarily describe opinion in California, where both politicians are widely known, and do not represent a national Democratic primary.

AOC Registers 14% in 2028 Democratic Presidential Polls

Outside California, a national Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll shows a different picture, with several potential candidates separated by relatively small margins.

Harris registered 17%, Pete Buttigieg 16%, while Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom each received 14%. Mark Kelly obtained 10%.

• In numbers: The study surveyed 1,200 U.S. likely voters overall between August 25 and September 1, with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

The comparison with February also shows movement: Newsom declined from 21% to 14%, while Ocasio-Cortez increased from 11% to 14%.

These preferences were recorded more than a year before the start of the 2028 primaries and do not indicate who will ultimately win the nomination.

New Hampshire Polls Show a Different 2028 Landscape

Ocasio-Cortez also registered significant support in New Hampshire, a state that has traditionally played an important role in the early stages of presidential primaries.

A University of New Hampshire poll published in July registered 22% for AOC and 21% for Buttigieg among potential Democratic primary voters.

• The limit: Another Saint Anselm poll in August placed Buttigieg at 25% and Ocasio-Cortez at 17%, illustrating differences between individual polls.

AOC, born in New York and of Puerto Rican heritage, also brings a Latino background to the group of potential candidates.

However, these results do not show how Hispanic voters would respond in a potential primary without polling specifically focused on that electorate.

Kamala Harris Still Has a Decision to Make

Newsom recently said he would not run for president if Harris decides to run again, saying that simultaneous candidacies could divide overlapping political support.

Harris has not announced a 2028 candidacy, while Ocasio-Cortez has also not confirmed that she will seek the White House.

• What’s next: Current polls show how Democratic preferences look at this early stage, but those preferences can change substantially before the primaries begin.

For now, California polling shows greater enthusiasm for Newsom than Harris among Democrats, while national and state surveys show several potential candidates receiving significant support.

You may be interested in: Texas 2026 Elections: Candidates, Polls and Five Key Races to Watch

SOURCE: Brookings / The New York Post / POLITICO