Bitcoin, Miners, and Mexican Peso: What’s Behind the Drop After Inflation

The bitcoin was stuck around $82,000, bitcoin mining stocks plummeted, and the dollar reached its highest level of the year against the Mexican peso. The three movements have a common origin: the September inflation in the US came in higher than expected and rekindled bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again.

• The Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% in 12 months in September, compared to 3.4% in August and the 3.6% expected by the market, according to The Crypto Times.
• Five major bitcoin miners listed in the US fell between 18.8% and 23.3% in the week of October 12-16.
• The FIX exchange rate reached 18.4930 pesos per dollar on Friday, October 16, the highest in 2026.

Why it matters: when inflation forces a rethink of higher interest rates, credit becomes more expensive, riskier assets lose appeal, and the dollar tends to strengthen. This affects both those who have a few dollars in bitcoin or stocks and those who send remittances to Mexico.

The inflation that rekindled fear of higher rates

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday, October 14, that consumer prices rose 0.6% in September (seasonally adjusted). Gasoline advanced 9.1% in the month and accounted for more than half of the increase. Excluding food and energy, annual inflation was 2.6%. You can see the details in our note on September inflation.

The Federal Reserve had already raised its reference rate by a quarter point on September 16, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Its next decision is on October 28. According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, cited by Cointelegraph, markets see an 85% probability that it will leave rates unchanged in October and a 75% probability that it will raise them by a quarter point in December. Fed President Kevin Warsh said in a conversation with IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva: «I don’t pre-judge meetings.» The S&P 500 ended that week with a 2% drop, according to Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin: stuck below a zone watched by analysts

Bitcoin was trading around $82,000 on Monday, October 19 (CoinGecko marked it at around $82,475 at 9 a.m. Eastern Time). According to Cointelegraph, it closed the week at $82,000, below a support zone of $82,500 to $82,800 that technical analysts follow. Its September high was around $87,000, and on July 1, it touched multi-year lows, below $58,000.

Some analysts are cautious. Rekt Capital warned on X that this close could take the price «below $80,000 in the coming weeks.» CryptoQuant noted that the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures demand from US investors, fell to -0.141 on October 18, its lowest level since June 30, and that if it remains negative, «it could indicate insufficient demand to absorb selling pressure.» These are analysts’ opinions, not forecasts. Additionally, bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded outflows of $549 million, according to Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin miners: drops of up to 23% in five sessions

According to Yahoo Finance’s closing prices, in the five sessions from October 12-16, IREN fell from $35.19 to $26.99 (-23.3%), MARA Holdings from $9.65 to $7.53 (-22%), CleanSpark from $10.49 to $8.40 (-19.9%), Hut 8 from $84.27 to $67.75 (-19.6%), and Riot Platforms from $16.89 to $13.72 (-18.8%). On Friday, October 16 alone, the drops were between 9.6% (MARA) and 11.5% (Riot).

In addition to inflation, The Crypto Times points to a business shift: many miners converted their facilities, with plenty of available electricity, into artificial intelligence data centers, and their stocks are now moving like those of AI infrastructure. On October 14, CoreWeave (over 15.5%, due to debt concerns) and Oracle (8.8%) fell sharply. That day, Gartner said that over $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could lose book value by the end of 2030. IREN signed a five-year contract with Microsoft for around $9.7 billion in November 2025, and Hut 8 is developing a data center in Texas. These are projects that require a lot of capital, and higher rates make financing more expensive.

Some firms have cut their price targets, according to The Crypto Times: Morningstar lowered IREN’s target from $43 to $37, and Cantor Fitzgerald lowered Riot’s target from $30 to $24 and Hut 8’s from $180 to $151.

Mexican peso: the dollar at its highest level in 2026

The FIX exchange rate from the Bank of Mexico was 18.4930 pesos per dollar on Friday, October 16, the highest in 2026 and since November 2025. The year’s low was 16.8748 on September 4, and since then, the dollar has risen 9.6%. According to El Congresista, with information from N+, the dollar was trading at 18.54 pesos on the morning of Monday, October 19, and the peso has accumulated six consecutive weeks of depreciation, amid concerns about the difference in rates: the Fed raised in September, and Banxico left its rate unchanged. More context in our note on the dollar in Mexico at its 2026 high.

For example, with the FIX rate on October 16, $500 is equivalent to 9,246.50 pesos, about 809 pesos more than the 8,437.40 on September 4. However, the FIX is just a reference rate published by Banxico since 12:00 (Mexico City time) each business day; banks and remittance companies apply their own rate and fees.

What to watch and what you can do

This week, there are few US economic data releases, and attention is on quarterly results: around 15% of S&P 500 companies report, including SpaceX on Tuesday, October 20, and Tesla and Meta on Wednesday, October 21, according to Cointelegraph. Hut 8 reports on November 4. The Fed decides on October 28, and the next CPI, for October, is released on November 10.

• If you send money to Mexico: compare how much your family receives in the end (exchange rate plus commission), not just the commission. A strong dollar gives you more pesos.
• If you have bitcoin or miner stocks: these are very volatile investments, with drops of 20% in one week. Don’t put in money you need for basic expenses or your emergency fund, and be wary of promises of quick gains on social media.

This note is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sources: BLS, September 2026 Consumer Price Index; Federal Reserve, September 16, 2026 statement; Bank of Mexico, FIX exchange rate; Yahoo Finance; CoinGecko; Cointelegraph; The Crypto Times; Gartner; El Congresista. Data consulted on October 19, 2026.