Trump Says US, Mexico Close to Major Trade Deal

President Donald Trump assured that the United States and Mexico are «very close» to closing a trade agreement with Mexico that would reduce the trade deficit, although he did not offer any details about its content. He made this statement on Monday, October 19, 2026, at a rally in Park City, Kansas, in support of Republican Senator Roger Marshall.

• Trump claimed that the agreement «will reduce that figure considerably» and that the deficit could «go down to zero,» without explaining how.
• From January to August 2026, the US trade deficit with Mexico was $155,871 million, according to the US Census Bureau.
• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard discussed contacts and the review of the USMCA, but did not confirm a closed agreement.

Why it matters: Mexico is the US’s main trade partner in goods, and any change in tariffs or rules can affect the prices of cars, steel, and other products, as well as thousands of jobs on both sides of the border. For now, however, there is no public text that allows for an evaluation of the pact’s real scope.

What Trump said in Kansas

According to Agencia Reforma and El Economista, Trump said: «Mexico and us are very close to closing a great agreement that will reduce that figure considerably,» referring to the trade deficit. He then turned to Marshall: «What would you say if I told you it could go down to zero? We’re not going to lose $150 billion with Mexico anymore!» Reuters also reported the phrase.

The president did not specify which products, tariffs, or commitments the agreement would include. Nor is this the first time he has used a similar tone: on September 16, 2026, at a rally in Gastonia, North Carolina, he said: «We’re very close to an agreement with Mexico, a great agreement.»

What the deficit figures show

From January to August 2026, the US exported $263,473 million in goods to Mexico and imported $419,344 million, according to the US Census Bureau. The difference was a deficit of $155,871 million. According to El Economista, this gap grew 21.2% compared to the same period the previous year. You can read more in our report on how the US trade deficit with Mexico grew 21%.

During that period, Mexico was the second country with the largest surplus with the US, behind Vietnam ($163,900 million) and ahead of Taiwan ($147,700 million) and China ($109,600 million). In 2025, Mexico was the US’s main trade partner in goods, with $872,800 million in trade, and nearly 80% of its exports have the US as their destination.

Mexico’s stance

Hours before the rally, Sheinbaum said she spoke with Trump by phone about the possibility of Mexico buying more US natural gas. According to Agencia Reforma and El Economista, the president added that Trump proposed allowing US investment in oil exploration, and she refused.

Sheinbaum also ruled out, in her morning press conference, that Trump had conditioned an agreement on the delivery of «narcopoliticians.» «No, nothing like that,» she said, according to Infobae.

For his part, Ebrard stated on October 19 that Mexico had already delivered the requested technical information and was waiting for Washington to define its position on the USMCA review after the November 3 elections, according to IBTimes Mexico. He highlighted improvements in steel traceability.

Doubts within Washington

According to Agencia Reforma, The Wall Street Journal reported the week before the rally that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was slowing down an agreement to reduce tariffs on steel, aluminum, and cars, despite advances with trade representative Jamieson Greer. If you want to understand his role, check out who Howard Lutnick is and what his role is in the agreement.

In other words, Trump’s optimism coexists with signs that within his own government, there is still no consensus, and with a political calendar marked by the November elections.

What it means for you

An agreement could modify tariffs on steel, aluminum, and cars, and thereby influence the prices of vehicles and other goods. But today, there is no text or announcement date, and the parties still differ on issues such as oil investment. The most prudent thing is to follow the official announcements from both governments before making purchase or business decisions based on this possible pact.

Sources: US Census Bureau, US trade with Mexico; El Economista; El Diario (Agencia Reforma); Infobae; IBTimes Mexico. Data consulted on October 20, 2026.