Texas Senate 2026: Paxton and Talarico, What You Need to Know Before Voting

The Texas Senate election will be decided on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, when voters will choose a member of the federal Senate. This is the seat currently held by Senator John Cornyn, who was seeking re-election but lost the Republican runoff to Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 26, 2026: Paxton received 63.8% (885,949 votes) and Cornyn 36.2% (501,725). As a result, no incumbent appears on the ballot. Paxton, a Republican, is running against Democrat James Talarico and Libertarian Ted Brown.

Why it matters

Latinos make up nearly a third of Texas’ eligible voters. According to UCLA (September 17, 2026), the number of eligible Latino voters grew from 3 million in 2000 to 6.3 million in 2024, and their share of the electorate increased from 22.3% to 31.7%. A Pew Research Center analysis of 2024 data indicates that Hispanics accounted for 32.3% of the eligible electorate, approximately 6.7 million people (a figure cited by Parriva). Among eligible voters aged 18 to 24, Latinos are the largest group, making up more than 45%, according to UCLA.

However, Texas Latinos are historically underrepresented at the polls. The Texas Tribune (September 26, 2026) estimates that around 25% of voters in this election will be Latino. According to NBC News, in 2024, Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley largely supported Trump, and mobilization organizations say nearly 500,000 Texas Latinos have turned 18 in the last two years. Issues like the cost of living and immigration affect the daily lives of many families, and several candidates also emphasize the cost of medicine and housing.

The candidates and their proposals

Ken Paxton (Republican), Texas Attorney General. At a forum hosted by the United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, Paxton agreed to consider work authorization programs for immigrants if the border is secured, according to KXAN. His campaign says he will defend President Trump’s legislative priorities, including securing the border and deporting those in the country without documentation. His economic plan proposes a $50,000 deduction for those buying their first or second home, a $25,000 deduction for medical expenses per dependent, and a $5,000 deduction for healthy lifestyle expenses, according to Border Report.

James Talarico (Democrat), Texas state representative. He said he supports work authorization programs for immigrants. He describes himself as a «border security Democrat» and wants to combine comprehensive reform with a welcoming policy, according to KXAN. As a state representative, he pushed for a cap on insulin prices; if elected, he said he would seek price caps for medicines like EpiPens and cancer medications (Border Report). On housing, he cites bipartisan efforts to relax construction regulations and increase affordable supply, according to KXAN.

Ted Brown (Libertarian). He is a retired insurance claims adjuster living in Austin, according to the Vote Texas Values guide. In 2024, he received more than 267,000 votes for the Senate, a record for a Libertarian in Texas. According to KLTV, he proposes abolishing the federal income tax, dismantling the IRS and the Department of Education, and creating a legal immigration system «in the style of Ellis Island».

What the polls say

Recent polls of likely voters yield different results:

• YouGov (September 28 to October 5, 2026): Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%, according to PredictionEdge.
• The New York Times/Siena College (September 21 to 30, 2026; 615 likely voters, margin of error ±4.5 points): Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%, according to PredictionEdge. TexPolls reports 49% to 43% in the initial ballot.
• Fox News (September 24 to 28, 2026, including those leaning towards a candidate): Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%, according to TexPolls.
• UMass Lowell/YouGov (September 18 to 28, 2026; 850 likely voters, adjusted margin of error ±4.5 points; published on October 8): Paxton and Talarico are tied at 45%, with 7% undecided and 2% for Brown, according to UMass Lowell.

Each poll has its own methodology, and several of the differences are within the margin of error, so it’s best to read them as different snapshots rather than a forecast.

The latest from the campaign

• • On Friday, October 9, Talarico was spotted at the Austin City Limits Festival, just hours after Paxton launched a hotline to report «sightings» of his rival. Talarico’s campaign previously stated` he had the flu; his last in-person public activity was on September 26 in Carrollton, according to Fox 4.
• After Paxton’s rally in San Antonio, Trump called for a debate between the two on Truth Social, according to CNN. Talarico’s campaign said he expected to return to the campaign trail over the weekend of October 10 and 11.
• Talarico accepted four debate invitations and challenged Paxton to one on Fox News. According to KVUE, Paxton has not accepted any in-person debate invitations. As of today, Sunday, October 11, 2026, no debate has been agreed upon, according to Spectrum News. KVUE notes that the last year without a debate in a Texas Senate contest was 2000.
• Voto Latino Foundation and Hispanic Federation launched a mobilization effort with a six-figure investment in the Rio Grande Valley, where they estimate around 316,000 eligible Latino voters did not participate in 2024, according to NBC News.

What you can do

• Registration: The deadline to register was Monday, October 5, 2026. If you have questions about your status, check on votetexas.gov.
• In-person early voting: Begins on Monday, October 19, 2026, and ends on Friday, October 30, 2026.
• Mail-in voting: If you meet the requirements to vote by mail (confirm on votetexas.gov), the deadline to request a ballot is Friday, October 23, 2026.
• Election Day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local Texas time.
• Get informed: Compare each candidate’s proposals on official sources and media with different approaches before deciding.

Sources: KXAN, Border Report, KLTV, Vote Texas Values, PredictionEdge, TexPolls, UMass Lowell, AOL, Fox 4, CNN, KVUE, Spectrum News, NBC News, UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute, Parriva, The Texas Tribune, VoteTexas.gov, CBS News Texas, Click2Houston