Kamala Harris Leads the Way to 2028, but AOC Gains Strength Among Hispanic Voters

Kamala Harris remains the best-positioned figure among Democrats in a potential 2028 presidential run.

The former vice president receives 28% support, exactly double that of California Governor Gavin Newsom, who registers 14%, according to The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll.

The survey represents just an early snapshot of a hypothetical Democratic primary, with more than two years to go before the next presidential cycle.

However, the results show significant movement behind Harris, especially among Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Harris Maintains a Stable Lead Heading into 2028

Harris has been hovering around 30% support for months and has remained at the forefront of The Center Square’s measurements since October 2025.

In that survey, she reached 33%; she dropped to 31% in March, registered 27% in June, and now stands at 28% in August.

Newsom, on the other hand, has lost ground. The governor went from 21% in October to 16% in March, before stabilizing at 14%.

Pete Buttigieg shows the opposite trend: he started with 7%, advanced to 11% in June, and now reaches 12%, closing in on Newsom.

A previous survey in June already showed Harris leading the Democratic field with 27%, while Buttigieg began to gain space among a broader group of potential candidates.

Hispanic Voters Send a Signal About Harris and AOC

One of the most relevant data points for the Latino community is how preferences are distributed within that electorate.

Harris receives 30% support among Hispanic and Latino voters, but Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appears in second place with 17%.

The result positions AOC as a figure to watch within this group, despite being behind the main candidates in the overall result.

Ocasio-Cortez also receives 13% among voters aged 18 to 29, again as the second option behind Harris.

The former vice president’s strength among young people is much greater: 47% of registered voters aged 18 to 29 prefer her over other potential candidates.

Harris also reaches 49% among African American voters, while Newsom lags far behind in that group with 10%.

Where Does Kamala Harris Show Weakness?

Kamala Harris’s leadership does not extend with the same intensity to all demographic groups included in the survey.

Among voters 65 years or older, Buttigieg leads the preferences with 20%, followed by Newsom with 19%. Harris drops to 13%.

She also loses ground among those with graduate degrees: Buttigieg receives 18%, compared to Harris’s 15%.

Another difference appears when observing political identification. Harris achieves 30% among Democrats, but her support drops to 20% among left-leaning independents.

AOC, on the other hand, even surpasses Newsom among the independents included in the measurement, with 10% compared to 9%.

A Democratic Race That Can Still Change

The numbers suggest that Harris currently maintains a considerable base among key sectors of the Democratic coalition, especially young people, African Americans, and Hispanics.

But behind her, the competition is starting to move: Newsom has retreated, Buttigieg is advancing, and AOC is finding spaces of strength among young people and Latinos.

The scenario is far from defining who will ultimately compete for the White House in 2028.

None of these results equates to a confirmed candidacy or predicts the outcome of future primaries.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll was conducted from August 12 to 16 among 2,533 registered voters through a voluntary online panel and web-accessible cellular messages.

The sample consisted of 930 Republicans, 930 Democrats, and 673 independents.

The margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Although there is still a long way to go until 2028, the survey paints an initial clear picture: Harris maintains the lead, but the growth of Buttigieg and the support of AOC among young people and Hispanics anticipate a Democratic primary that can still change significantly.

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SOURCE: The Center Square