Immigration and Economy Divide Latino Vote as 2026 Election Nears

Just hours before the elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, two issues, immigration and economy, are vying for the Latino vote. This became clear in the debate broadcast by Univision on Sunday, November 1, and published by N+, featuring two Democratic and two Republican panelists.

• Participants included Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Luis Miranda Jr. for the Democrats, and Mayra Flores and Alfonso Aguilar for the Republicans.
• The moderator noted that immigration stirs emotions, but according to polls, the economy is the top concern for the Hispanic population.
• Aguilar believes the Democrats will likely win the House but not the Senate; Mucarsel-Powell calls the election a «referendum against the president».

Why it matters: according to USA Today and the Texas Politics Project, Trump won 55% of the Latino vote in Texas in 2024, a record for a Republican candidate. The same information indicates that support has decreased due to the cost of living and the enforcement of immigration laws, the two topics of the debate.

The Economy, the Top Priority

Miranda, a political strategist and president of the Latino Victory Fund, argued that voters decide based on multiple issues at once. He acknowledged that many trust Republicans more on security, but added that immigration, the price «of eggs», shopping, gas, and the war in Iran also weigh on their decisions.

According to Miranda, only 24% of Latinos support Trump. He also cited a Pew poll, which found that 73% of Latino Democrats are enthusiastic about voting. These figures are from the panelists and have not been verified by this media outlet.

Immigration, the Most Divisive Issue

Mucarsel-Powell, a former Democratic congresswoman from Florida, accused the government of intimidating Latino communities and separating families.

Flores, a former Republican congresswoman from Texas, blamed the Biden administration for allowing «millions of people» to cross the border illegally, leading to mass deportations. She also stated that Hispanics should remember that Barack Obama deported more immigrants than any other president.

Aguilar, former head of the Office of Citizenship in the George W. Bush administration, called for nuance: «We are not a monolithic group, and on immigration, we have different viewpoints». He cited a University of Houston poll, which found that Latinos in rural southern Texas favor Paxton and Abbott by a wide margin.

Blue Wave or Close Election?

Aguilar acknowledged that the Democrats have momentum and that the president’s party often performs poorly in midterm elections. However, he believes the polls are incorrect and that the contest is closer. He thinks the Democrats will likely win the House but not the Senate. «It’s possible that the final results will be very similar to those of four years ago,» he said.

Mucarsel-Powell was more cautious in her tone: «I don’t want to get too excited». Nevertheless, she stated that over 50 million Americans have already voted, and that participation gives the Democrats momentum, also in Florida. She called the election a «referendum against the president» and cited Trump’s 32% approval rating.

What to Watch on Tuesday

Texas is a key focus of attention. According to USA Today, in District 15, Democrat Bobby Pulido is ahead of Republican Monica De La Cruz. Flores recalled that in 2022, she lost District 34 by just two points, in a district where, according to her, Biden had won by 17. She claimed that the district now favors Republicans, although polls have them trailing.

In Florida, voter turnout will be the key indicator, given Mucarsel-Powell’s argument about early voting. In districts with large Latino populations, the outcome will show whether the cost of living or immigration policy carries more weight, or if, as Aguilar said, the Latino electorate is divided differently depending on the area.

To review the states where the Latino vote may make a difference, consult our guide on the 8 states where the Latino vote may make a difference.

Sources: N+ / Univision; USA Today. Data consulted on November 2, 2026.