Florida Governor 2026: Donalds vs Jolly

The election for Florida governor will be decided on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and the seat is open: Governor Ron DeSantis cannot seek another term after eight years in office. Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are competing after the primaries on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. In Florida, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected on a single ticket.

Why it matters

According to the Pew Research Center (September 10, 2026), Hispanics make up 22.6% of Florida’s eligible voters. Another Pew analysis (January 10, 2024) ranks the state third in the number of eligible Latino voters, 3.5 million, after California and Texas. ClickOrlando (October 14, 2026) describes them as about one in four voters in the electorate and notes that both parties are vying for them, with clashes over the economy and immigration enforcement. Estimates vary depending on the source and what each measures.

In the NBC 6/Telemundo poll conducted by Mason-Dixon, property taxes were the third most important issue among Hispanics (13%) and immigration enforcement, the fourth (12%). These are pocketbook and family issues: housing costs, home insurance, and immigration status.

Meet the candidates and their proposals

Byron Donalds (Republican) was elected in 2020 and has represented Congressional District 19 since January 2021. On August 25, 2026, he named state Senator Bryan Avila of Hialeah as his running mate. According to AP/PBS (August 19, 2026), he has promised tax cuts, insurance regulation reform to lower consumer costs, and more price transparency in healthcare providers.

Regarding data centers, according to News4JAX (October 5, 2026), he says the decision belongs to local governments and offers two guarantees: that utility bills will not increase as a result and that freshwater will be protected. His campaign released ads on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, highlighting endorsements from DeSantis and President Donald Trump. On Thursday, October 15, 2026, he said his campaign has spoken with Hispanic groups, black voters, religious groups, and Jewish voters. In the reviewed sources, no detailed stance from him on immigration is found.

David Jolly (Democrat) was a federal representative for Florida’s 13th District from 2014 to 2017, as a Republican. He later became a critic of Trump and a political commentator, and left the Republican Party in September 2018. His running mate is Gwen Graham. According to WFLA (October 15, 2026), he believes the reaction to current immigration enforcement levels will sway more voters toward Democrats, and asserts that Republicans have shifted from border security to cruelty. This is a political assessment, not a detailed plan.

That day, he opened «Casa Jolly,» a Hispanic outreach office, in Tampa. According to WWSB (October 3, 2026), he focuses much of his message on public education: he calls for increased investment and a review of how the state uses tourist taxes to ensure more money reaches schools. Regarding data centers, according to News4JAX (October 5, 2026), he says he would impose a moratorium on large-scale data centers on his first day in office.

What the polls say

Recent polls do not entirely agree:

• Stetson University (October 1-9, 2026, 716 likely voters, ±4.2), according to the RealClearPolling chart (Stetson’s release for this round was not found): Donalds 52%, Jolly 41%. In its previous round (September 14-21), Donalds 51% and Jolly 39%.
• St. Pete Polls, for Florida Politics (October 5-7, 836 likely voters, ±3.4): Donalds 45%, Jolly 45%. Among Hispanics, Jolly 54% and Donalds 38%.
• YouGov, according to Newsweek (September 28-October 5, 3,813 likely voters, ±2.7): Donalds 47%, Jolly 45%, 7% undecided. Among Hispanics, Jolly 49% and Donalds 44%.
• NBC 6/Telemundo-Mason-Dixon (September 28-October 1, 625 registered voters, ±4.0): among Hispanics, Donalds 48% and Jolly 43%.

The RealClearPolling average (September 24-October 9) gives Donalds 48% and Jolly 43%, and classifies the race as «Toss Up,» meaning no clear favorite. The numbers among Hispanic voters vary by pollster, and each sample has its own margin of error.

Opinion:

Byron Donalds has consolidated himself as a strong ally of President Donald Trump, a political closeness that raises questions about his willingness to make independent decisions when Florida’s interests conflict with the White House’s priorities. David Jolly, on the other hand, represents a distinct alternative: a former Republican who presents himself as a more moderate and pragmatic voice, with proposals focused on the cost of living, immigration, civil rights, and climate change.

The underlying difference is not only ideological but also one of leadership: Donalds bets on the continuity of Trump’s agenda, while Jolly seeks to project a more independent vision centered on Floridians’ everyday challenges. The question is which of the two will be able to turn their promises into concrete solutions for the state.

This week’s latest

• Debates: Telemundo and NBC 6 proposed a debate in South Florida for Thursday, October 22, 2026. Donalds accepted the invitation. Jolly declined all general election debates on September 20, 2026. In the reviewed sources, there is no confirmed debate between the two, and the one at FAMU, previously scheduled, was canceled.
• Thursday, October 15, agenda: while Jolly opened Casa Jolly in Tampa, Donalds led an event at Northside Christian School, part of his «Defending the Florida Dream» tour, focused on women’s sports.
• Money: According to Florida Phoenix (October 14), Jolly received $241,431 in public financing for the week ending October 9, and Donalds received $38,888. Jolly estimates he could have around $15 million for the last three weeks, compared to between $30 and $35 million that, according to him, Donalds would have. These spending projections are Jolly’s own estimates, not confirmed figures.
• Immigration context: according to ClickOrlando, the Department of Homeland Security reports over 985,000 deportations since Trump’s return to the White House, and the administration has moved to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuelans and Haitians.

Where each candidate stands on issues that matter most to Hispanics

We summarize the voting records and actions of Byron Donalds and David Jolly, and their proposals on six issues that affect the pocketbook, family, and community. The candidates appear in the same order and with the same treatment. Where less information is available about one of them, we say so. The election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Immigration

• Byron Donalds: Voted «yes» to the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) on January 22, 2025 (Clerk) and to the Secure the Border Act (H.R. 2) on May 11, 2023 (Clerk). The DHS Inspector General’s report (Monday, September 14, 2026) found that «Alligator Alcatraz,» closed in June 2026, kept detainees in overcrowded conditions that could harm their health. Donalds said that calling for an investigation of a facility that no longer operates sounds more like bureaucratic work, according to Spectrum News 13. Florida Politics reports that he said he had not read the report and that his priority as governor would be services like hurricane response. No detailed immigration plan from Donalds was found, nor could his stance on 287(g), E-Verify, or Dreamers be confirmed.
• David Jolly: Voted «yes» to H.R. 3009, which withdrew certain federal funds from local governments that limit immigration cooperation. It was approved 241-179 on July 23, 2015, according to the Clerk of the House. His campaign website proposes border security, legal paths to work and obtain status, and support for Dreamers. He told WOKV that he would change state rules that force local governments to cooperate with ICE, and Tallahassee Reports that he would not require them to sign 287(g) agreements. On Wednesday, October 7, 2026, he promised the Haitian community in North Miami that he would defend immigrants facing deportation, according to WLRN. The source notes residents’ doubts about his authority to fulfill this, as the federal government controls immigration.

Cost of living

• Byron Donalds: According to the Tampa Bay Times, he defends the «One Big Beautiful Bill» law, which included deductions for overtime and tips and reduced food assistance (SNAP); the source calculates that 247,000 Florida children would lose this assistance. Donalds voted «yes» on May 22 and July 3, 2025 (Clerk). He will vote in favor of Amendment 3, which raises the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and to $250,000 in 2028; it needs 60% of the vote, according to CBS Miami. In Ocala (Wednesday, October 14, 2026) he proposed property taxes by level and relief for seniors and working families, according to Florida Politics. His campaign cites a Florida State University study to talk about a $1,000 tax per family under Jolly’s insurance plan; WUFT notes that this study has no public results and analyzed a different proposal.
• David Jolly: He proposes a state fund that assumes hurricane and wind risk and, according to CBS Miami, claims it would lower premiums by 60% to 70%. He told WUSF that he presented a similar project in Congress; the sources do not identify the number. He opposes Amendment 3 but said he would respect the outcome if voters approve it. WUFT notes that the plan only changes who bears the risk and that, if a large hurricane depleted the fund, the debt could fall on taxpayers. Jolly denies the $1,000 tax and says his team has not published a detailed plan for analysis.

Civil rights for all

• Byron Donalds: Voted «no» to the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Promotion Act (H.R. 4) on August 24, 2021 (Clerk) and «no» to the CROWN Act (H.R. 2116), which protects against discrimination based on popular hairstyles among black people, on March 18, 2022 (Clerk), according to U.S. News (AP). At a Florida A&M event, he said being a Republican does not mean being anti-black. He tells WFLA that his approach is to create opportunities through merit and education. In August, he criticized Jolly for supporting access to medical care for transgender minors and the participation of transgender athletes in women’s sports; he said he would not retract, according to Orlando Weekly.
• David Jolly: On October 7, 2015, he was the only Republican to vote against creating a special House panel to investigate abortion practices and fetal tissue management (H.R. 451, approved 242-184), according to PolitiFact. He explained that there were already three committees investigating the issue. He defends parents’ right to decide on gender affirmation care for their children; The Advocate reports that this earned him the endorsement of Equality Florida Action PAC and that his stances are more nuanced than Donalds describes. He accused Donalds of voting against voting rights protections. An ad from his campaign was criticized by the Democratic Party and experts, who consider it reinforces a racial stereotype; Jolly defended it, according to Florida Politics (via AOL).

Health

• Byron Donalds: According to the Tampa Bay Times, he defends the «One Big Beautiful Bill» law, which included work requirements for Medicaid. He voted «yes» on May 22 and July 3, 2025 (Clerk). Analyses of the law (CBO, cited by ASTHO) estimate that its healthcare provisions would cause 11.8 million people to lose coverage by 2034; this is an estimate of the law as a whole. He opposes expanding Medicaid in Florida and proposes lowering costs through price transparency and fraud prevention.
• David Jolly: Voted «yes» on February 3, 2015, to H.R. 596, which would have repealed the Affordable Care Act, approved 239-186 in the House; it did not become law (Clerk). He supports expanding Medicaid. It is unclear how he would fund the expansion initially; he argues that it would eventually pay for itself through a healthier population. He told WLRN that health, housing, and education are three pillars of personal economy, and that the private sector should lead and the government «fill the gaps.»

Possible conflicts of interest

• Byron Donalds: The Campaign Legal Center filed a complaint with the House Ethics Office on September 5, 2024. It alleges that Donalds and his wife made 108 stock transactions in 2022 and 2023 without filing the required reports on time. His office responded that the transactions were made by external financial professionals without his direction or approval, according to Business Insider (via Yahoo News). The outcome of the complaint is not public. In October 2026, Florida Bulldog reported that he filed documents to acknowledge that his reports from 2021 to 2024 omitted federal student loans and a mortgage. His spokesperson said he updates his reports voluntarily and did not answer why the omissions occurred. According to PolitiFact, he said in December 2025 that he supports banning lawmakers from trading stocks, with an exception for those who authorize an external professional.
• David Jolly: He was a lobbyist with his own firm, Three Bridges Advisors; in his 2013 disclosure, he reported at least $155,000 in fees from 30 clients, according to the Tampa Bay Times. He worked at Boston Finance Group, owned by Leo Govoni, from 2012 to early 2014 and earned $250,000 in 2013, according to CBS News. A grand jury has indicted Govoni for embezzling over $100 million from a nonprofit organization. According to CBS, the court documents do not indicate that Jolly was aware of the scheme, and he has not been charged with any wrongdoing. His campaign states that he was one of more than 100 employees who did not have a fiduciary role or access to the organization’s finances.

An advertisement from Donalds claims that Jolly lobbied for offshore oil drilling. However, PolitiFact and WUFT conclude that although he attended a 2011 meeting where such a project was discussed, he did not actually advocate for it, as indicated by the lobbying form. Additionally, no proposals regarding ethics rules from him have been found in the reviewed sources.

Crime and corruption

• Byron Donalds: As a state legislator, he voted against the 2018 Marjory Stoneman Douglas school safety law, after Parkland. The law raised the minimum age to buy a rifle to 21, banned «bump stocks,» required a three-day waiting period, and created «red flag» orders, according to the Tampa Bay Times. He has said he was part of the Republican minority that opposed it; the state House approved it 67-50 on March 7, 2018. He considers repealing parts of the law, including the red flag provision, and said he wants to protect constitutional rights. He is supported by Pinellas Sheriff Bob Gualtieri, according to Florida Phoenix. No criminal investigation or charge against him was found; the documented issues are the ethics and financial disclosure matters described above.
• David Jolly: He proposes banning the sale of assault weapons, universal background checks, exploring licenses to possess guns, and preserving and expanding red flag laws. He says the Parkland law was bipartisan and should stand, according to Florida Phoenix. His campaign did not respond to how he would expand the red flag law. Donalds’ campaign used a clip where Jolly said that the «culture of guns» must be «crushed.» He proposes a local police force focused on public safety, not deportation, according to WLRN. His former boss, Leo Govoni, faces a federal indictment for fraud (see Possible conflicts of interest); Jolly has not been charged, and no investigation into him was found.

What you can do

• Registration: The deadline to register and vote in this election was Monday, October 5, 2026.
• Vote by mail: the last day to request a mail ballot is Thursday, October 22, 2026, at 5 p.m. (ET), according to official county sources. One source mentions October 25, so confirm with your supervisor of elections.
• Early voting: it is mandatory in all counties from Saturday, October 24, to Saturday, October 31, 2026. Counties may offer it optionally from Monday, October 19, to Sunday, November 1; Pinellas and Palm Beach do so from October 19 to November 1. Each county sets its hours and sites, so check with your local supervisor.
• Election Day, Tuesday, November 3: polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. (ET), and you must go to your assigned precinct. Mail ballots must be at the supervisor’s office by 7 p.m. at the latest.
• Where to inform yourself: check official dates at electionsfla.com and your county’s details on your local supervisor of elections’ page.

Sources: Wikipedia; AP/PBS; News4JAX; WFLA; WWSB; RealClearPolling; Florida Politics; Newsweek; NBC News; Florida Phoenix; ClickOrlando; Tallahassee Reports; Pew Research Center; Pew Research Center (2024); Florida Division of Elections; Hillsborough Supervisor of Elections; Pinellas Supervisor of Elections; WPTV; Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives